Method for prediction of ship traffic behaviour and encounter frequency

Abstract The design of new rules on seaways, such as traffic restrictions, requires determining the degree improvement in marine safety beforehand by considering occurrence hazardous factors. This study proposes a method to predict future behaviour and ship encounter frequency (EF) with introduction rule. First, sensitivity analysis is conducted identify factors affecting EF. A predicting EF presented based changes flow an area temporal restriction. Results show that appropriately predicts location encounters sea area. proposed contributes discussion safety, when sailing specific restricted regulations, installations offshore wind farms fishing reefs.